Bitcoin finished the week up 0.7%, but the miners told a different story. Cipher dropped 26%, Marathon 16%, and IREN 15%, while Circle and Coinbase gained 7–8%. The pressure came from AI credit markets rather than crypto. CoreWeave’s bonds now yield close to 15%, and the 10-year Treasury briefly touched its highest level since 2002, forcing investors to reprice any company that relies on debt to build data centers. Our Bitcoin Mining Index is still ahead of Bitcoin year-to-date, but its cumulative gain since March 2025 has fallen from roughly 580% to 271%.

MicroStrategy failed MSCI’s new screen for non-operating companies, but a two-period buffer makes it more likely to land on a watchlist than face deletion, with the November 11 index review as the next test for an estimated $2.8bn in potential forced selling.

In this report, we separate the miners with signed, creditworthy tenants from those facing near-term financing deadlines, and outline the signals we need to see before adding exposure.

We have also several suggestions how portfolio managers should navigate the latest developments and what they should look out for before prices could reverse.