Our monthly regime analysis is built to give institutional investors the confidence to make allocation decisions that hold for months, quarters, or even years. On November 1, 2025, our regime model turned bearish. The on-chain signals below have marked turning points across several Bitcoin cycles, and they gave investors a clear reason to act on that call. By August 2026, the same signals had begun to reverse. On September 1, our model moved to its biggest allocation change of the cycle.

That allocation held in October, and most of the evidence now points to a new bull market. But one indicator still disagrees, and two price levels will decide whether this is a real breakout or another false start like April's. Below, we explain what each signal is saying, the targets they imply, and the levels that would make us change our view.