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Our Bitcoin Regime Model Just Ended a 10-Month Zero Allocation
Bitcoin rallied +24% in August, not a spectacular headline number on its own, but the charts from our regime model below tell the more important story.
After ten straight months at 0% allocation, our monthly Bitcoin regime model has flipped, and the shift is being driven by a broad turn across our on-chain indicators, not just price. This regime model has proven its value primarily in knowing when to step aside, cutting exposure to zero on November 1, 2025, right as the bear market took hold, while most investors were still buying the dip and assuming on-chain data simply hadn't caught up to the parabolic move. But if you don't sell high, you can't sell low. Once again, the model earned its keep by getting investors out at zero exposure precisely when it mattered.
Here's what changed, what the new allocation is, and what needs to hold for it to stick.
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Monthly Returns (RHS)
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