We turned bullish on the Bitcoin miners (and crypto stocks) on September 28, 2023, as the ‘Ultimate [Bitcoin] Bet for 2024’. Despite the Bitcoin rally, investors had neglected these stocks. During Q4 2023, those stocks became Bitcoin ETF approval proxies and benefited tremendously. Other temporary tailwinds helped increase miners’ profitability (see below) and caused massive stock repricing.

But we also noted that a month or two ahead of the halving, we would cut any exposure as the stock performance around the halving could become unpredictable. Mining stocks have undergone colossal boom and bust cycles, and timing entry and exit points require an unemotional assessment.