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Prediction Markets: A 6.4-Sigma BTC Impossibility and the Endgame Sweep Paying 63% Annualized

Strategize Your Digital Asset Investment Strategy

Author

10x Research
December 08, 2025

We have taken a closer look at prediction markets and, while liquidity remains relatively thin, the exercise has been valuable in understanding their structure and identifying viable profit mechanics. We will share broader insights and core rules in upcoming reports, but to begin, we are publishing a brief note centered on one specific strategy we executed ourselves, with pricing still largely unchanged. Ultimately, meaningful learning only happens when real capital, even in modest size, is deployed, which is why this first trade serves as both a live case study and a practical entry point into the space.

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